The Case for Kyler Murray To Choose Football

Guaranteed Money

As MLB stars Manny Machado and Bryce Harper push for fully-guaranteed, $300 million contracts in free agency, Aaron Rodgers could only muster $134 million from the Packers, with only $100 million guaranteed.

Football’s non-guaranteed contracts are undoubtedly an issue Murray wouldn’t have to worry about in the major leagues. And the top-end earning potential is also much higher in baseball.

However, there are a few key points being omitted when crunching the financial numbers. First, the largest active contract in the majors belongs to Giancarlo Stanton, who signed a 13-year deal worth $325 million. The long-term security is a blessing, but the average value is $25 million per season, right in line with the guarantees in Rodgers’ Packers deal, which could actually be worth up to $33.5 million per season if he never has to restructure the contract. Only Zach Greinke of the Diamondbacks has a higher average annual salary, at $34.42 million per season over six years. There are plenty of reasons to prefer a big baseball contract to a big football one, but the money discrepancy for a superstar may be overstated.

As for the signing bonus, Murray already has $4.66 million guaranteed from the Athletics. When Murray seemed like a mid-round pick, that guarantee was enough to dismiss the NFL. Yet Lamar Jackson’s NFL signing bonus as the last pick in the first round was $4.97 million. He is set to make $7.56 million in total guaranteed money over his first four years, with an additional $2 million in non-guaranteed money that he’s likely to earn. After that, if Jackson plays reasonably well, he should expect his fifth-year option to be picked up, which depending on the trend of quarterback salaries should be in the $15 million to $20 million range (for Murray it would be even higher if selected in the top 10).

Murray likely has the leverage to get his rookie deal fully guaranteed, and it may even make sense for him to discuss it with teams willing to give significant guarantees while picking at the top of round two. It would allow him to reach free agency a year earlier, similar to how Russell Wilson gained more bargaining power than Andrew Luck in the 2012 draft, despite the difference in draft position. He will also be able to make that money right away, while the MLB suppresses earnings for young players. Even for all-star level players drafted in the first round, the long-term contracts with big guaranteed money aren’t available until far down the line. A few examples of Murray’s potential to earn in MLB can be found in the chart below:

Pollack wasn’t as highly drafted as Murray, but he was a collegiate athlete and it took him nearly three years to make a big league roster. In the minors, the max salary for a first-year player is $1,100 per month, plus $25 a day for food, according to Nolan Kido of BizFluent.com. After the first year, Forbes.com estimates Triple-A players on average make about $10,000 a month, while Double-A earn $6,000 a month. The Athletics AA affiliate Las Vegas 51s play a six-month schedule.

While the opportunity to earn any kind of cash shouldn’t be completly disregarded, Pollack went through 2009, 2010, and 2011 basically living off his signing bonus and monthly stipend before making the majors. He earned less than $2 million over his first four years. Between 2009 and 2015, his total salary, including his signing bonus and minor league stipend, came in at just about $3.5 million. Compare that to Andy Dalton, who was a second-round pick to the Bengals but started in the NFL the same year he was drafted in 2011. Over his first seven years, Dalton made more than $53 million as a middle-of-the-pack quarterback. Pollack’s salary increased in the next three years, but his earning power is middling for a 30-year old who isn’t a superstar. Dalton may not a lot of leash left as the Bengals quarterback, but he maximized his early window and likely has five or more years left playing in the NFL at some capacity.

Machado represents the best-case scenario. He was fast-tracked to the majors and is now hitting free agency in time to get a monster contract. But he was drafted out of high school at the age of 17 in 2010. Murray was 20 years old this past June. Even still, Machado’s first seven years, including his signing bonus and estimated minor league earnings, only brought him about $12 million. While he agreed an $11.5 million salary in 2017 to avoid arbitration, he is only hitting free agency in earnest this year. After nine years of professional baseball, Machado’s career earnings currently sit at $40 million. If Murray follows a similar career path, he would be 30 years old by the time he hits the same mark, and far less likely to earn that giant 10-year, record-setting contract.

Springer is another college draft pick, and it took him an extra year to get to the majors. Despite being drafted in 2011—about a month after Dalton was picked by the Bengals—Springer didn’t play major league baseball until 2014. Murray’s signing bonus was over $2 million more than Springer’s back in 2011, despite being taken at about the same spot in the MLB Draft. But Murray has to consider the risk of spending two or three years in the minors when he could potentially start at quarterback on day one. There is a higher ceiling to earn in baseball, but there is no guarantee that a 29-year old Murray gets there with enough left in the tank to sign a contract that dwarfs a potential NFL starting quarterback contract.

Not to mention those are all examples of players who relatively lived up to their draft status. Michael Choice was the 10th overall pick of the Athletics in 2010, with a $2 million signing bonus. He did not get to the majors until 2013, and flamed out in two and a half years—never earning a six-digit salary before having his contract sold to a Korean team. He is currently playing in the Mexican Baseball League.

Cam Newton is the highest-paid quarterback under the current NFL CBA, which suppresses rookie salaries. He’ll make $140 million through his first 10 seasons with a chance at another big contract in the future. For comparison, Russell Wilson was drafted a year later and in the third round, but is set to make just more than $91 million through his first eight seasons before getting that second lucrative contract. If Murray is worried that the slim chances of making it to the magical $400 million mark aren’t worth the wait, there is a path to becoming a quarterback with $300 million in career earnings as salaries increase in football.