Draft Stock
Murray’s size and lack of college football experience made his NFL prospects a long shot heading into the MLB Draft. He played football sparingly at Texas A&M in 2015, sat out in 2016 due to transfer rules, and backed up Baker Mayfield at OU in 2017. Without much on-field success, he was labeled too small to be a legitimate NFL prospect as a quarterback. Some pundits did suggest his athleticism could facilitate a potentially easy switch to different positions—a proposition seemingly exclusive to African-American quarterbacks. Nonetheless, it still wouldn’t be a better option than baseball.
Yet his predecessor, Mayfield, broke the mold in terms of size. Mayfield isn’t as small Murray, however his height was supposed to disqualify him from the first-round conversation ahead of last year’s NFL draft. Instead, he was drafted first overall by the Browns. When taking into account Cleveland’s disastrous coaching situation, he has already flashed superstar potential. Mayfield is on track to join the likes of diminutive QBs like Drew Brees and Russell Wilson as “exceptions to the rule” that quarterbacks need to be tall in order to have thrive. More importantly, the NFL has taken a leap in terms of offensive strategy. Oklahoma Head Coach Lincoln Riley is at the forefront of the new wave hitting the NFL. Many pro teams, particularly the best offensive ones, are incorporating the type of spread looks that Murray succeeded with in college. Not only have concerns about his size lessened do to individual success, offensive success across the board has increased the value of Murray’s skill set.
We are also looking at a what is considered to be a weak class of quarterbacks for the upcoming draft. Tagovailoa and Georgia’s Jake Fromm won’t be eligible until the 2020 NFL Draft. Oregon’s Justin Herbert is widely thought to be the top quarterback this year, but there is plenty of momentum suggesting he could return to school for his senior year. If Dwayne Haskins also returns to school—which seems less likely considering the current supply and demand for NFL-ready quarterback, plus the situation at Ohio State — the 2019 class becomes a disaster. Teams would be left with less appealing options like Will Grier of West Virginia, Daniel Jones of Duke, Jarrett Stidham of Auburn, and Drew Lock of Missouri. Murray would easily be the most intriguing option of that group.
The Raiders, Giants, Jaguars, Buccaneers, Bengals, Dolphins, Redskins and Broncos will all have to seriously consider acquiring a quarterback this offseason. And that isn’t counting teams like the Chargers and Patriots who always need to consider succession plans for their aging passers.
It’s easy to argue that if you remove Herbert and Haskins from the equation, Murray would have the highest-ceiling among the remaining options, including both college prospects and potential NFL retreads who may become available. Murray would probably need to be a top-40 pick to even make the decision to leave baseball behind viable.
