I was in Dallas this weekend, and I have to tell you, the Senate primary is impossible to miss. Billboards lined I-20. Campaign ads played on loop at sports bars around the Cowboys’ Stadium. But what was unusual is that they all featured the same person: James Talarico.
That tells you something important about this race but perhaps not what you think. Let’s dive in.
The State of Play
A little background: U.S. Senators serve six-year terms. John Cornyn (TX’s other senator alongside Ted Cruz) has held his seat since 2002, winning reelection every single time. His seat is up in 2026, and two Democratic candidates are leading five total contenders competing in the March 3rd primary: TX State Rep James Talarico and U.S. House Rep Jasmine Crockett.
The most recent polling, from Emerson College, shows Talarico leading 47% to 38% among likely Democratic primary voters. We need to talk about what those numbers actually mean and what they’re missing.
On policy, both candidates are essentially the same. The real question isn’t about progressive credentials. Rather, it’s about two fundamentally different theories of how to win in TX and whether we’re finally ready to try something that hasn’t already failed.
It’s about two fundamentally different theories of how to win in Texas and whether we’re finally ready to try something that hasn’t already failed.
Why Polling Is Measuring the Wrong Thing
Polling tells us something specific and limited. The current polls measure “likely Democratic primary voters” which are typically people who participated in previous primaries. That’s a standard methodology, and within those parameters, the polls are probably accurate. Talarico likely is leading among people who reliably vote in Democratic primaries.
But that’s not the electorate Crockett is building.
When a candidate’s entire strategy is based on turning out people who don’t typically vote in primaries, polling likely voters tells you almost nothing about whether that strategy will work. It’s not that the polls are wrong, but that they’re measuring something different than what Crockett is attempting to do.
Crockett has been open and explicit about this. As she explained on “The View”:
“TX is a non-voting state. We are one of the lowest-voter-turnout states in the entire country, with only a little bit more than 50% of people turning out to vote. We are also a majority-minority state.”
She then pointed out that TX has four million Black residents who could transform the electorate if they mobilize. These voters aren’t captured in traditional polling. The polls are measuring one electorate while Crockett is attempting to build a different one entirely.
Texas has four million Black residents who could transform the electorate if they mobilize.
The demographic breakdown in current polling actually supports this: Talarico leads among the traditional Democratic primary electorate. But when you break that down, you learn that while Talarico polls better with white voters and Latino men, Crockett polls better with Latina women, meaning the Latino vote is far from settled. She also commands 80% support among Black voters; the base she’s explicitly organizing to expand.
